Market Pulse53Neutral

Booking Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #54(BKNG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$172.83

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$172.83
Price
$240.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 39%MOS: $192.02

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

45/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is estimated at $240.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $172.83, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.92% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is estimated at $240.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $172.83, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.92% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$240.02
▲ 38.88% upside
20% margin of safety: $192.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.48%
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Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
38.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
91.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (68th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 62 (43 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 regulatory scrutiny+1.7
33 news sentiment+0.2
19 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

45/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA-52.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-51.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-103.8%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -52.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA0 · -51.4%
3M RS vs SPY34 · -3.9%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -103.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -96.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Booking Holdings Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 53.9% above the current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 73 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.8%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.48%5 Year CAGR: 25.30%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,649$9,731$8,752$7,689$6,922$3,124$371$5,233$5,780$4,950$4,193$3,276$3,046$2,386$1,841$1,389$800$525$334$172$125

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Booking Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Booking Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading global provider of online travel and dining reservation services. The company manages a portfolio of well-known digital platforms. Among these, Booking.com specializes in online accommodation bookings, while Rentalcars.com is dedicated to facilitating vehicle rentals. Priceline offers a comprehensive range of online travel booking options, encompassing hotels, flights, rental cars, vacation packages, and cruises, alongside hotel distribution services. Agoda also provides online lodging reservations, further expanding into flights, ground transportation, and activity bookings. For travelers seeking the best deals, KAYAK functions as an online price comparison service, enabling users to search and contrast prices for airline tickets, hotels, and car rentals. Additionally, OpenTable allows for convenient online restaurant reservations. Beyond its core booking services, Booking Holdings Inc. also supplies travel-related insurance products and restaurant management solutions to individual consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants. Established in 1997, the company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. It officially adopted its current name, Booking Holdings Inc., in February 2018, having previously operated as The Priceline Group Inc.