Market Pulse50Neutral

Booking Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #93(BKNG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$4,396.79

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$4,396.79
Price
$5,340.10
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 21%MOS: $4,272.08

Fundamental Score

77/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is estimated at $5,340.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4,396.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is estimated at $5,340.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4,396.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.49% long-term growth rate and a 9.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$5,340.10
▲ 21.45% upside
20% margin of safety: $4,272.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.49%
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Fundamental Details

77/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
21.5% discount to price
86
FCF Yield
6.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
98
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
92.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (20th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 48m ago
Sources: 126 (102 News · 24 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
81 news sentiment+0.9
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Macro headwinds-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Booking Holdings Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 25.3% above the current price and demonstrates healthy fundamentals including a strong free cash flow yield of 6.9%. Despite returns trailing the estimated cost of capital, the company's fundamentals remain constructive, supporting a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not currently exceeding the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.49%5 Year CAGR: 25.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,731$9,731$8,752$7,689$6,922$3,124$371$5,233$5,780$4,950$4,193$3,276$3,046$2,386$1,841$1,389$800$525$334$172$125

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Booking Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Booking Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Booking Holdings Inc. provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services worldwide. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; Rentalcars.com that provides online rental car reservation services; Priceline, which offer online travel reservation services, and consumers hotel, flight, and rental car reservation services, as well as vacation packages, cruises, and hotel distribution services. It also operates Agoda that provides online accommodation reservation services, as well as flight, ground transportation and activities reservation services. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online price comparison service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices, comprising airline ticket, accommodation reservation, and rental car reservation information; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.