Market Pulse50Neutral

The Boeing CompanyOpportunity Rank #282(BA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$198.41

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$198.41
Price
-$16.51
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 108%MOS: -$13.21

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Boeing Company (BA) is estimated at $-16.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $198.41, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -24.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Boeing Company (BA) is estimated at $-16.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $198.41, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -24.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$16.51
-108.32% downside
20% margin of safety: -$13.21
Years: 10Growth Rate: -24.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
108.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
14
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.5x)
23
Net Debt / FCF
6.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
632.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (73rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 49m ago
Sources: 208 (200 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 regulatory scrutiny+3.1
161 news sentiment+0.4
Legal risk-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
The Boeing Company is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by a bearish fundamental score despite an improving narrative. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating weak financial performance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -24.36%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 477.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,007$4,007-$9,762$7,487$4,734-$2,436-$17,107-$485$17,113$15,214$13,112$11,813$11,094$10,417$9,218$5,736$4,079$6,789$1,451$11,315$9,180

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Boeing Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Boeing CompanyIndustrials

The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sales, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Airplanes; Defense, Space & Security; Global Services; and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment provides commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo requirements, as well as fleet support services. The Defense, Space & Security segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems; strategic defense and intelligence systems, which include strategic missile and defense systems, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cyber and information solutions, and intelligence systems; and satellite systems, such as government and commercial satellites, and space exploration. The Global Services segment offers products and services, including supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance and modifications, upgrades and conversions, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, technical and maintenance documents, and data analytics and digital services to commercial and defense customers. The Boeing Capital segment offers financing services and manages financing exposure for a portfolio of equipment under operating leases, sales-type/finance leases, notes and other receivables, assets held for sale or re-lease, and investments. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.