Market Pulse59Neutral

AutoZone, Inc.Opportunity Rank #106(AZO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$3,554.88

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$3,554.88
Price
$4,516.97
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 27%MOS: $3,613.58

Fundamental Score

78/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

36/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $4,516.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3,554.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.89% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $4,516.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3,554.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.89% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4,516.97
27.06% upside
20% margin of safety: $3,613.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.89%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
13.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

78/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.1% discount to price
95
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 13.6% vs WACC 7.0% (1.9x)
97
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
30
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
61
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 57 (47 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
23 news sentiment+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

36/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-19.7%
Price vs 21 EMA42 · -1.2%
Price vs 50 EMA43 · -1.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.2%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.8%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.4%
Distance from 52W High61 · -19.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
AutoZone, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 30.1% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6.6 percentage points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.6%. The company demonstrates robust financial health and growth potential, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
A key risk is that the company’s ROIC could fall below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.89%5 Year CAGR: 1.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,479$4,445$4,077$3,737$3,884$4,140$3,178$2,625$2,603$2,124$2,066$2,006$1,790$1,829$1,602$1,413$1,512$1,196$1,165$1,070$1,086

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AutoZone, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AutoZone, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company offers various products for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. Its products include A/C compressors, batteries and accessories, bearings, belts and hoses, calipers, chassis, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting products, mufflers, radiators, starters and alternators, thermostats, and water pumps, as well as tire repairs. In addition, the company offers maintenance products, such as antifreeze and windshield washer fluids; brake drums, rotors, shoes, and pads; brake and power steering fluids, and oil and fuel additives; oil and transmission fluids; oil, cabin, air, fuel, and transmission filters; oxygen sensors; paints and accessories; refrigerants and accessories; shock absorbers and struts; spark plugs and wires; and windshield wipers. Further, it provides air fresheners, cell phone accessories, drinks and snacks, floor mats and seat covers, interior and exterior accessories, mirrors, performance products, protectants and cleaners, sealants and adhesives, steering wheel covers, stereos and radios, tools, and wash and wax products, as well as towing services. Additionally, the company provides a sales program that offers commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products; sells automotive diagnostic and repair software under the ALLDATA brand through alldata.com and alldatadiy.com; and automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products through autozone.com. As of November 20, 2021, it operated 6,066 stores in the United States; 666 stores in Mexico; and 53 stores in Brazil. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.