Market Pulse53Neutral

AutoZone, Inc.Opportunity Rank #100(AZO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$2,923.50

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$2,923.50
Price
$4,218.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 44%MOS: $3,374.71

Fundamental Score

82/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

48/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $4,218.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2,923.50, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.89% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.34%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $4,218.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2,923.50, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.89% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.34%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4,218.39
44.29% upside
20% margin of safety: $3,374.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.89%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
13.15%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

82/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
44.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 13.2% vs WACC 7.0% (1.9x)
94
Net Debt / FCF
1.9x net debt to FCF
32
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
61
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

48/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (22nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 58 (46 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.5
38 news sentiment+0.2
Macro headwinds+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
3 margin pressure+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.6%
Price vs 21 EMA34 · -2.6%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA26 · -3.1%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.1%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -27.3%
Distance from 52W High36 · -32.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
AutoZone, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital by 5.9 percentage points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.6%, supporting a medium-confidence buy recommendation. The stock is near fair value with a modest upside of about 7.4%, suggesting patience may be warranted for a better entry point.
Key Risk
A key risk is that the ROIC may decline below the cost of capital in future quarters, undermining the company's value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.89%5 Year CAGR: 1.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,511$4,445$4,077$3,737$3,884$4,140$3,178$2,625$2,603$2,124$2,066$2,006$1,790$1,829$1,602$1,413$1,512$1,196$1,165$1,070$1,086

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AutoZone, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AutoZone, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

AutoZone, Inc. operates as a leading retailer and distributor specializing in automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company's comprehensive inventory caters to a diverse range of vehicles, including cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks. Their product offerings encompass both new and remanufactured critical hard parts, essential maintenance items, various accessories, and a selection of non-automotive goods. Key automotive components available include A/C compressors, batteries, bearings, belts, hoses, brake calipers, chassis parts, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting systems, mufflers, radiators, starters, alternators, thermostats, water pumps, and tire repair kits. For vehicle upkeep, AutoZone supplies antifreeze, windshield washer fluid, an extensive array of brake components (drums, rotors, shoes, pads), various automotive fluids (brake, power steering, oil, transmission), oil and fuel additives, and filters for oil, cabin air, engine air, fuel, and transmission. Other maintenance products cover oxygen sensors, paints, refrigerants, shock absorbers, struts, spark plugs, wires, and windshield wipers. Beyond functional parts, the company offers a wide assortment of accessories and general merchandise such as air fresheners, mobile phone accessories, snacks, drinks, floor mats, seat covers, interior and exterior styling products, mirrors, performance parts, protectants, cleaners, sealants, adhesives, steering wheel covers, car stereos, radios, various tools, and vehicle wash/wax supplies. Additionally, they provide towing services. AutoZone also extends its reach through several channels: a commercial program providing credit and delivery services for professional clients; sales of automotive diagnostic and repair software under the ALLDATA brand via alldata.com and alldatadiy.com; and online retail of its full product range (hard parts, maintenance, accessories, non-automotive items) through autozone.com. As of November 20, 2021, AutoZone maintained a significant operational footprint, with 6,066 stores in the United States, 666 stores in Mexico, and 53 stores in Brazil. The company was established in 1979 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.