Market Pulse50Neutral

AutoZone, Inc.Opportunity Rank #103(AZO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$3,353.24

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$3,353.24
Price
$3,676.87
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 10%MOS: $2,941.50

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $3,676.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3,353.24, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.76% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is estimated at $3,676.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $3,353.24, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.76% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3,676.87
9.65% upside
20% margin of safety: $2,941.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.76%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.08%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
9.7% discount to price
66
FCF Yield
6.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.1% vs WACC 7.0% (2.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
19
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (73rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 134 (121 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
36 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
81 news sentiment+0.3
Demand slowdown-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.1
Margin pressure-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
AutoZone, Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a valuation implying a 12.2% upside and a strong ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 8.1 percentage points, supported by healthy fundamentals and a solid free cash flow yield of 6.8%. The company's financial health and constructive fundamentals suggest sustained value creation potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend which could signal emerging challenges impacting future performance and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.76%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.96%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,768$4,445$4,077$3,737$3,884$4,140$3,178$2,625$2,603$2,124$2,066$2,006$1,790$1,829$1,602$1,413$1,512$1,196$1,165$1,070$1,086

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AutoZone, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AutoZone, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company offers various products for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. Its products include A/C compressors, batteries and accessories, bearings, belts and hoses, calipers, chassis, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting products, mufflers, radiators, starters and alternators, thermostats, and water pumps, as well as tire repairs. In addition, the company offers maintenance products, such as antifreeze and windshield washer fluids; brake drums, rotors, shoes, and pads; brake and power steering fluids, and oil and fuel additives; oil and transmission fluids; oil, cabin, air, fuel, and transmission filters; oxygen sensors; paints and accessories; refrigerants and accessories; shock absorbers and struts; spark plugs and wires; and windshield wipers. Further, it provides air fresheners, cell phone accessories, drinks and snacks, floor mats and seat covers, interior and exterior accessories, mirrors, performance products, protectants and cleaners, sealants and adhesives, steering wheel covers, stereos and radios, tools, and wash and wax products, as well as towing services. Additionally, the company provides a sales program that offers commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products; sells automotive diagnostic and repair software under the ALLDATA brand through alldata.com and alldatadiy.com; and automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products through autozone.com. As of November 20, 2021, it operated 6,066 stores in the United States; 666 stores in Mexico; and 53 stores in Brazil. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.