Market Pulse46Neutral

AeroVironment, Inc.Opportunity Rank #302(AVAV) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$144.58

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$144.58
Price
-$7.97
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 106%MOS: -$6.38

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

78/100
Strong

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

9/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is estimated at $-7.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $144.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is estimated at $-7.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $144.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$7.97
▼ -105.51% downside
20% margin of safety: -$6.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.58%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
105.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.4% vs WACC 7.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-62.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

78/100
Strong
-2 vs previous · +4 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 215 (196 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
45 news sentiment+2.8
140 legal risk+2.3
Analyst downgrades-0.2
5 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
3 earnings beat+0.2
3 downgrade headlines-0.1

Trend Details

9/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-64.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-64.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.7%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.1%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -16.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA10 · -6.4%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -64.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -64.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
AeroVironment, Inc. is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by a strong narrative but weak fundamentals. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite positive market sentiment.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could further depress its valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.59%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -62.37%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
-$34$21$40$26$13$98$36$28$79-$1$7$45$37$37$34$44$47$53$23$18

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AeroVironment, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AeroVironment, Inc.Industrials

AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe. The company's operations are segmented into Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missile Systems (TMS), Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS), and High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Systems (HAPS). Its core clientele, particularly for UAS, TMS, and unmanned ground vehicles along with their accompanying support, includes agencies within the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied governments. AeroVironment also specializes in the engineering and manufacturing of unmanned aerial vehicles, encompassing airborne platforms, integrated payloads, ground control units, and essential support equipment. Beyond these core systems, the firm provides comprehensive support for small UAS products, offering spare components, modular payloads, power supplies (batteries, chargers), repair services, and dedicated customer assistance, alongside various aircraft, handheld control systems, and accessories. A key innovation area for the company involves the development of high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS. Founded in 1971, AeroVironment's headquarters are located in Arlington, Virginia.