Market Pulse59Neutral

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Opportunity Rank #191(ASTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$65.35

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$65.35
Price
$76.40
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 17%MOS: $61.12

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $76.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $65.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $76.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $65.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.27% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$76.40
▲ 16.91% upside
20% margin of safety: $61.12
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-18.31%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
16.9% discount to price
78
FCF Yield
3.8% trailing FCF yield
45
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -18.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-2.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
165.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 133 (130 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
110 news sentiment+0.1
Earnings beat+0.1
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
Product recall+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA39 · -1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA8 · -7.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -33.1%
6M RS vs SPY44 · -2.2%
Distance from 52W High23 · -38.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 52%
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 22% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong balance sheet with near net cash. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows potential for growth with positive free cash flow metrics and buybacks.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 46.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 299.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$993$993$48-$30-$99-$25$8$3-$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Technology

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.