Market Pulse50Neutral

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Opportunity Rank #205(ASTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$88.42

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$88.42
Price
$74.56
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 16%MOS: $59.65

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $74.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $74.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$74.56
▼ -15.68% downside
20% margin of safety: $59.65
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-18.31%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.7% premium to price
24
FCF Yield
2.9% trailing FCF yield
24
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -18.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-2.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
165.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 106 (102 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
88 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.2
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 59%
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. shares appear fully priced with a current price above the estimated fair value, and returns are trailing the company's cost of capital. Despite a net cash balance sheet and strong free cash flow growth, the overall fundamentals remain bearish with a deteriorating narrative trend.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns on invested capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 46.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 299.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$993$993$48-$30-$99-$25$8$3-$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Technology

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. operates space-based cellular broadband network for mobile phones. Its SpaceMobile service provides mobile broadband services for users traveling in and out of areas without terrestrial mobile services on land, at sea, or in flight. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.