Market Pulse44Neutral

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Opportunity Rank #192(ASTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$57.80

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$57.80
Price
$78.33
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 36%MOS: $62.66

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

28/100
Broken

-13 vs previous

Trend Score

6/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $78.33 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $57.80, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.94% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $78.33 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $57.80, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.94% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$78.33
▲ 35.52% upside
20% margin of safety: $62.66
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-13.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
35.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
4.7% trailing FCF yield
69
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -13.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
171.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

28/100
Broken
-13 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 175 (172 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
141 news sentiment-1.3
25 regulatory scrutiny-0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 macro headwinds-0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

6/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-56.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-42.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-28.6%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -21.9%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -28.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA5 · -8.6%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -42.4%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -47.0%
Distance from 52W High0 · -56.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 56%
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, and its valuation is near fair value, suggesting investors should be patient. However, the improving narrative score indicates some positive momentum.
Key Risk
The company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a significant risk to value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 47.34%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 308.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$1,115$993$48-$30-$99-$25$8$3-$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Communication Services

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or unserved locations that lack traditional terrestrial mobile coverage, whether on land, across oceans, or during air travel. The company is situated in Midland, Texas.