Market Pulse50Neutral

ASML Holding N.V.Opportunity Rank #171(ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,369.62

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,369.62
Price
$798.08
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 42%MOS: $638.46

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $798.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,369.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $798.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,369.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$798.08
-41.73% downside
20% margin of safety: $638.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
20.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
41.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.3% trailing FCF yield
32
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 20.1% vs WACC 10.0% (2.0x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 53m ago
Sources: 208 (200 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
53 regulatory scrutiny+2.8
138 news sentiment+1.9
3 layoffs-0.3
3 downgrade headlines+0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
3 analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
ASML Holding N.V. shows strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score, indicating operational strength. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited upside at present.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation, with the current price nearly 40% above the estimated fair value, which could lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment weaken.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.23%5 Year CAGR: 4.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,363$15,843$16,021$8,652$11,057$14,192$6,028$4,619$4,365$2,409$2,422$2,828$1,643$1,466$989$2,950$1,236$229$634$923$616

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ASML Holding N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ASML Holding N.V.Technology

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers. It offers advanced semiconductor equipment systems, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. The company also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, it offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, the company provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.