Market Pulse44Neutral

ASML Holding N.V.Opportunity Rank #191(ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,747.58

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,747.58
Price
$660.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 62%MOS: $528.54

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

73/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $660.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,747.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $660.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,747.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.15% long-term growth rate and a 10.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$660.68
-62.19% downside
20% margin of safety: $528.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.15%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
20.49%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
62.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.1% trailing FCF yield
3
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 20.5% vs WACC 9.0% (2.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 203 (195 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
162 news sentiment+7.9
22 regulatory scrutiny+2.6
5 earnings beat+1.6
3 upgrade headlines+0.6
Guidance raise+0.1
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

73/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+30.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.1%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.2%
Price vs 50 EMA59 · +1.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.1%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +17.9%
6M RS vs SPY97 · +30.6%
Distance from 52W High76 · -12.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
ASML Holding N.V. is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals, including a return on invested capital (ROIC) substantially exceeding its cost of capital. The company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity support a constructive fundamental outlook, though the narrative trend is deteriorating.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more reasonable valuation level, given the 59% premium to fair value and a worsening narrative trend.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor the narrative score for meaningful shifts, especially any improvement or further deterioration.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.15%5 Year CAGR: 0.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,410$15,627$15,802$8,534$10,906$13,998$5,946$4,556$4,306$2,376$2,389$2,789$1,620$1,446$975$2,910$1,219$226$625$910$607

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ASML Holding N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ASML Holding N.V.Technology

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.