Market Pulse50Neutral

AppLovin CorporationOpportunity Rank #189(APP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$458.95

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$458.95
Price
$203.50
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 56%MOS: $162.80

Fundamental Score

65/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $203.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $458.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.09% long-term growth rate and a 12.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $203.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $458.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.09% long-term growth rate and a 12.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$203.50
▼ -55.66% downside
20% margin of safety: $162.80
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.09%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
25.64%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
55.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
14
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 25.6% vs WACC 11.0% (2.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
77.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 204 (187 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
141 news sentiment+1.1
29 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
8 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
Earnings beat-0.0
6 legal risk-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
AppLovin Corporation's fundamentals are constructive with a strong ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital, but the stock is currently trading at a steep premium to its estimated fair value. Despite solid free cash flow growth and buybacks, the deteriorating narrative score suggests caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price remains significantly overvalued relative to fair value, which may lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment worsen.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or stabilization
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 30.18%5 Year CAGR: 61.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$3,999$3,999$2,104$1,066$413$363$226$202$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AppLovin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AppLovin CorporationTechnology

AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a marketing software solution, which matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions; Adjust, an analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data; and MAX, an in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction. Its business clients include various advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and others. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.