Market Pulse59Neutral

Apollo Global Management, Inc.Opportunity Rank #18(APO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$127.79

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$127.79
Price
$230.41
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 80%MOS: $184.33

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

60/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is estimated at $230.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.26% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is estimated at $230.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.26% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$230.41
80.30% upside
20% margin of safety: $184.33
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-16.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
80.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -16.7% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
496.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (93rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 209 (195 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
32 news sentiment+1.7
10 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
151 legal risk+0.8
Earnings miss-0.4
Earnings beat+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

60/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+10.0%
Price vs 21 EMA+7.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.7%
Price vs 21 EMA85 · +7.1%
Price vs 50 EMA87 · +10.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.8%
3M RS vs SPY25 · -6.7%
6M RS vs SPY26 · -9.3%
Distance from 52W High71 · -14.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 89% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a robust narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's exceptional free cash flow growth and buyback activity underpin a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.26%5 Year CAGR: 39.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,004$7,452$3,253$6,322$3,992$1,129-$1,557$1,122$829$817$622$589-$367$1,033$277$765-$212$124$210$863-$1,818

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Apollo Global Management, Inc.Financial Services

Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity and real estate markets. The firm's private equity investments include traditional buyouts, recapitalization, distressed buyouts and debt investments in real estate, corporate partner buyouts, distressed asset, corporate carve-outs, middle market, growth capital, turnaround, bridge, corporate restructuring, special situation, acquisition, and industry consolidation transactions. The firm provides its services to endowment and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors. It manages client focused portfolios. The firm launches and manages hedge funds for its clients. It also manages real estate funds and private equity funds for its clients. The firm invests in the fixed income and alternative investment markets across the globe. Its fixed income investments include income-oriented senior loans, bonds, collateralized loan obligations, structured credit, opportunistic credit, non-performing loans, distressed debt, mezzanine debt, and value oriented fixed income securities. The firm seeks to invest in chemicals, commodities, consumer and retail, oil and gas, metals, mining, agriculture, commodities, distribution and transportation, financial and business services, manufacturing and industrial, media distribution, cable, entertainment and leisure, telecom, technology, natural resources, energy, packaging and materials, and satellite and wireless industries. It seeks to invest in companies based in across Africa, North America with a focus on United States, and Europe. The firm also makes investments outside North America, primarily in Western Europe and Asia. It employs a combination of contrarian, value, and distressed strategies to make its investments. The firm seeks to make investments in the range of $10 million and $1500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with Enterprise value between $750 million to $2500 million. The firm conducts an in-house research to create its investment portfolio. It seeks to acquire minority and majority positions in its portfolio companies. Apollo Global Management, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices in North America, Asia and Europe.