Market Pulse44Neutral

Arista Networks, Inc.Opportunity Rank #196(ANET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$168.61

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$168.61
Price
$88.74
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 47%MOS: $70.99

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

65/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) is estimated at $88.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.61, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.34% long-term growth rate and a 10.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) is estimated at $88.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.61, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.34% long-term growth rate and a 10.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$88.74
▼ -47.37% downside
20% margin of safety: $70.99
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.34%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
59.88%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
16
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 59.9% vs WACC 8.0% (7.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
49.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 83 (72 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
66 news sentiment+1.2
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Margin pressure+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

65/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+27.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.1%
Price vs 21 EMA42 · -1.3%
Price vs 50 EMA63 · +2.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.1%
3M RS vs SPY45 · -1.2%
6M RS vs SPY95 · +27.1%
Distance from 52W High80 · -9.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Arista Networks, Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and an improving narrative score, indicating operational strength and growth potential. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more attractive valuation level, limiting potential returns despite strong fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 11.39%5 Year CAGR: 38.81%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$5,569$4,491$3,740$2,068$537$1,081$750$979$527$647$153$221$128$55$30$15

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Arista Networks, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Arista Networks, Inc.Technology

Arista Networks, Inc. is a leading global technology firm that designs, promotes, and distributes innovative cloud networking solutions across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions. Its comprehensive product portfolio features advanced extensible operating systems, a collection of powerful network applications, and high-performance gigabit Ethernet switching and routing hardware. The company also offers robust post-contract customer support, which includes technical assistance, hardware repairs, parts replacement beyond standard warranty, and critical bug fixes, patches, and upgrades. Arista serves a diverse clientele, encompassing major internet companies, telecommunication providers, financial services organizations, government agencies, and entities in the media and entertainment sectors. Its sales strategy involves multiple channels, utilizing distributors, system integrators, value-added resellers, original equipment manufacturer partners, and a dedicated direct sales force. Established in 2004 as Arastra, Inc., the company adopted the name Arista Networks, Inc. in October 2008 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.