Market Pulse59Neutral

AutoNation, Inc.Opportunity Rank #293(AN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$205.29

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$205.29
Price
-$100.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 149%MOS: -$80.54

Fundamental Score

25/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

44/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of AutoNation, Inc. (AN) is estimated at $-100.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AutoNation, Inc. (AN) is estimated at $-100.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$100.68
▼ -149.04% downside
20% margin of safety: -$80.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

25/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
149.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
6.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
20.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-12.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

44/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (16th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 75%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 28 (20 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Earnings miss-0.4
7 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
11 news sentiment-0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.3%
Price vs 50 EMA+2.4%
Price vs 21 EMA58 · +1.3%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.7%
6M RS vs SPY43 · -2.4%
Distance from 52W High81 · -9.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
AutoNation, Inc. is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value 143.8% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company also faces elevated leverage at 20.8x net debt to free cash flow, indicating financial stress.
Key Risk
The key risk is that AutoNation's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify its high leverage and current valuation, potentially leading to further price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.07%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -16.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$477$421$643$1,134$1,997$1,843$1,364$1,039$912$854$766$765$695$687$494$539$414$445$795$367$478

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AutoNation, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AutoNation, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. It offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; and parts and services, such as automotive repair and maintenance, and wholesale parts and collision services. The company also provides automotive finance and insurance products comprising vehicle services and other protection products, as well as arranges finance for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 339 new vehicle franchises from 247 stores located primarily in metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company also owned and operated 57 AutoNation-branded collision centers, 9 AutoNation USA used vehicle stores, 4 AutoNation-branded automotive auction operations, and 3 parts distribution centers. AutoNation, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.