Market Pulse50Neutral

Amazon.com, Inc.Opportunity Rank #30(AMZN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$210.14

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$210.14
Price
$451.58
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 115%MOS: $361.26

Fundamental Score

77/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is estimated at $451.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $210.14, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.56% long-term growth rate and a 10.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is estimated at $451.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $210.14, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.56% long-term growth rate and a 10.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$451.58
114.89% upside
20% margin of safety: $361.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.56%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.48%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

77/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
114.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.5% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
36
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 234 (200 News · 34 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
160 news sentiment+6.4
39 regulatory scrutiny+2.0
Layoffs-0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
33 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Amazon.com, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 121% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative trend. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, its robust free cash flow yield and improving narrative score suggest attractive long-term growth potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the company’s cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.93%5 Year CAGR: 20.37%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$271,333$271,333$198,876$137,675$110,397$107,380$106,204$55,375$44,150$30,320$25,007$17,426$11,735$8,919$7,965$5,714$4,474$3,666$2,030$1,629$918

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Amazon.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Amazon.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Its products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale; and products offered by third-party sellers The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Blink, eero, and Echo; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, and advertisers. Amazon.com, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

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