Market Pulse50Neutral

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Opportunity Rank #249(AMD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$202.68

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$202.68
Price
$76.33
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 62%MOS: $61.06

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is estimated at $76.33 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $202.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.14% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is estimated at $76.33 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $202.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.14% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$76.33
-62.34% downside
20% margin of safety: $61.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.58%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
62.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
16
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.6% vs WACC 7.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (59th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
157 news sentiment+5.2
36 regulatory scrutiny+1.9
5 upgrade headlines+0.9
Earnings beat-0.1
Layoffs-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is currently overvalued with its price trading approximately 61.9% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score of 38 and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable and somewhat supportive narrative score of 80, the overall investment outlook is bearish.
Key Risk
The key risk is that AMD's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.23%5 Year CAGR: 17.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$8,683$8,683$3,677$2,213$4,015$3,822$1,365$710$197$181$167-$141-$3-$64-$205$632-$264$939-$68$1,375$3,144

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Technology

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Computing and Graphics; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. Its products include x86 microprocessors as an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and professional GPUs, and development services; and server and embedded processors, and semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, development services, and technology for game consoles. The company provides processors for desktop and notebook personal computers under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen PRO, Ryzen Threadripper, Ryzen Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, AMD Athlon PRO, AMD FX, AMD A-Series, and AMD PRO A-Series processors brands; discrete GPUs for desktop and notebook PCs under the AMD Radeon graphics, AMD Embedded Radeon graphics brands; and professional graphics products under the AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro graphics brands. It also offers Radeon Instinct, Radeon PRO V-series, and AMD Instinct accelerators for servers; chipsets under the AMD trademark; microprocessors for servers under the AMD EPYC; embedded processor solutions under the AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series processors brands; and customer-specific solutions based on AMD CPU, GPU, and multi-media technologies, as well as semi-custom SoC products. It serves original equipment manufacturers, public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers, system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers through its direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.