Market Pulse55Neutral

The Allstate CorporationOpportunity Rank #7(ALL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$216.40

Last updated: Apr 29, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$216.40
Price
$665.15
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 207%MOS: $532.12

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-04-28

The intrinsic value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is estimated at $665.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $216.40, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.30% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is estimated at $665.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $216.40, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.30% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$665.15
207.37% upside
20% margin of safety: $532.12
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
207.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.9x)
45
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
86
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (100th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 68 (58 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 news sentiment+2.2
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
3 earnings beat+0.1
Legal risk-0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-04-28310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+8.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.9%
Price vs 21 EMA60 · +1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +2.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.3%
3M RS vs SPY81 · +8.8%
6M RS vs SPY68 · +6.9%
Distance from 52W High98 · -0.8%

Investment Coach

Updated 7h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
The Allstate Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 200% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative trend. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow yield and buyback activity, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could limit value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.30%5 Year CAGR: 13.61%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,338$10,338$9,141$4,495$5,541$5,461$5,799$5,562$5,452$4,613$4,306$3,919$3,524$4,449$3,339$2,175$3,851$4,490$4,201$5,707$5,216

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Allstate Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Allstate CorporationFinancial Services

The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability segments. The Allstate Protection segment offers private passenger auto and homeowners insurance; specialty auto products, including motorcycle, trailer, motor home, and off-road vehicle insurance; other personal lines products, such as renter, condominium, landlord, boat, umbrella, and manufactured home and stand-alone scheduled personal property; and commercial lines products under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services segment provides consumer product protection plans and related technical support for mobile phones, consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances; finance and insurance products, including vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection waivers, road hazard tire and wheel, and paint and fabric protection; roadside assistance; device and mobile data collection services; data and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information; and identity protection services. This segment offers its products under various brands including Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside Services, Arity, and Allstate Identity Protection. The Allstate Health and Benefits provides life, accident, critical illness, short-term disability, and other health insurance products. The Run-off Property-Liability offers property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through call centers, agencies, financial specialists, independent agents, brokers, wholesale partners, and affinity groups, as well as through online and mobile applications. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is based in Northbrook, Illinois.