Market Pulse46Neutral

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #41(ALK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$49.42

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$49.42
Price
$331.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 571%MOS: $265.18

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $331.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.92% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $331.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.92% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.47%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$331.48
▲ 570.74% upside
20% margin of safety: $265.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
570.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
52.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
3
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
53
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
393.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
-2 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 61 (47 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
40 news sentiment+0.7
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
13 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+12.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+5.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+6.5%
Price vs 21 EMA56 · +0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA78 · +6.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA86 · +5.5%
3M RS vs SPY89 · +12.8%
6M RS vs SPY24 · -10.2%
Distance from 52W High55 · -22.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 700% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 62.4%. The company's improving narrative and constructive fundamentals suggest potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The company's returns are currently trailing its estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.92%5 Year CAGR: 17.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,899$2,837$2,745$2,544$3,089$1,322-$28$2,418$2,155$2,616$2,064$2,415$1,724$1,547$1,327$1,083$737$744$577$1,316$1,132

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Industrials

Alaska Air Group, Inc. operates via its subsidiaries, providing comprehensive air transportation solutions for both passengers and freight. Its business is organized into three principal segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The airline extends its services to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Originally established in Seattle, Washington, in 1932, the company maintains its corporate base in that city.