Market Pulse50Neutral

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #102(ALK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$38.63

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$38.63
Price
$315.84
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 718%MOS: $252.67

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $315.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.63, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.90% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.65%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $315.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.63, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.90% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.65%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$315.84
▲ 717.60% upside
20% margin of safety: $252.67
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.90%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
717.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
64.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
6
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
391.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
-1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (8th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 54 (45 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
40 news sentiment+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 727.8% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score and healthy free cash flow yield. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows promising buyback activity and robust free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) being substantially below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.90%5 Year CAGR: 16.50%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,837$2,837$2,745$2,544$3,089$1,322-$28$2,418$2,155$2,616$2,064$2,415$1,724$1,547$1,327$1,083$737$744$577$1,316$1,132

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Industrials

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.