Market Pulse59Neutral

Aetna Inc.(AET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$106.35

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$106.35
Price
$59.46
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 44%MOS: $47.57

Fundamental Score

21/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Aetna Inc. (AET) is estimated at $59.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.35, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Aetna Inc. (AET) is estimated at $59.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.35, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$59.46
▼ -44.09% downside
20% margin of safety: $47.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

21/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
44.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
31
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (89th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 45%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 6 (6 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 news sentiment+0.5

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Aetna Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 36% with weak fundamentals and returns that lag its cost of capital, suggesting limited upside potential. Despite a strong narrative score, the company's financial performance and valuation metrics indicate a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital may not improve sufficiently to justify the current price, leading to further downside.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.19%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -7.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998
$1,442-$54$3,989$4,229$3,742$2,758$2,160$2,880$1,701$2,850$2,654$2,466$1,979$2,165$1,627$581$462$109$1,564$2,566$1,004

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Aetna Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Aetna Inc.Healthcare

None