Market Pulse44Neutral

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Opportunity Rank #111(ADP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$255.27

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$255.27
Price
$256.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 0%MOS: $205.11

Fundamental Score

74/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

76/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is estimated at $256.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $255.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.61% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is estimated at $256.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $255.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.61% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$256.39
0.44% upside
20% margin of safety: $205.11
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

74/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
0.4% discount to price
51
FCF Yield
5.6% trailing FCF yield
91
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.4% vs WACC 11.0% (1.4x)
70
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
73
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (18th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 65 (56 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
41 news sentiment+0.4
Earnings beat+0.2
Margin pressure+0.0
12 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Layoffs-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

76/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+21.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+11.1%
Price vs 21 EMA+6.8%
Price vs 21 EMA84 · +6.8%
Price vs 50 EMA89 · +11.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.1%
3M RS vs SPY97 · +21.5%
6M RS vs SPY27 · -8.9%
Distance from 52W High64 · -17.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) presents a compelling buy opportunity with a strong fundamental score of 79 and a valuation implying an 11.6% upside. The company's ROIC of 15.36% exceeds its cost of capital by 4.4 percentage points, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.2%.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend signals potential underlying issues that could impact future performance despite strong fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.24%5 Year CAGR: 9.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,754$5,108$4,721$4,779$3,653$3,599$3,643$3,255$2,986$2,597$2,246$2,241$2,189$1,860$2,160$1,984$1,909$1,817$2,065$1,621$2,224

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Technology

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is a global provider of cloud-based solutions designed for human capital management (HCM). The company organizes its operations into two primary segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Through its Employer Services division, ADP delivers strategic, cloud-powered platforms and comprehensive human resources (HR) outsourcing. This encompasses a wide array of services such as payroll processing, benefits administration, talent acquisition and management, general HR and workforce management, insurance, retirement planning, and regulatory compliance, often integrated into holistic HCM solutions. Conversely, the Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segment specializes in offering HR outsourcing to small and mid-sized businesses, leveraging a co-employment framework. This segment's offerings span robust benefits packages, regulatory protection and compliance, talent engagement strategies, specialized HR expertise, all-encompassing outsourcing, and even recruitment process outsourcing. Established in 1949, ADP maintains its corporate headquarters in Roseland, New Jersey.