Market Pulse44Neutral

Adobe Inc.Opportunity Rank #57(ADBE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$194.90

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$194.90
Price
$487.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 150%MOS: $389.90

Fundamental Score

90/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

-6 vs previous

Trend Score

8/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is estimated at $487.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $194.90, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.44% long-term growth rate and a 9.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is estimated at $487.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $194.90, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.44% long-term growth rate and a 9.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$487.37
150.06% upside
20% margin of safety: $389.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.44%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.71%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

90/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
150.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.7% vs WACC 10.0% (1.6x)
79
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
98
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
87
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
-6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 220 (191 News · 29 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
145 news sentiment+1.9
5 analyst downgrades-0.3
27 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
6 downgrade headlines-0.2
Guidance raise+0.2
2 upgrade headlines-0.1

Trend Details

8/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-50.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-55.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.2%
Price vs 21 EMA2 · -13.7%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -18.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA13 · -5.5%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -36.2%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -55.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -50.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Adobe Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value more than 100% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company's financial health and growth prospects are robust, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
A key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend which could signal emerging challenges affecting future performance and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.44%5 Year CAGR: 7.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,029$10,210$8,288$7,662$8,280$7,553$6,146$4,755$4,296$3,091$2,404$1,654$1,436$1,340$1,771$1,754$1,283$1,237$1,392$1,571$1,010

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Adobe Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Adobe Inc.Technology

Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment empowers individuals, teams, and enterprises to generate, disseminate, and amplify various forms of content through its array of products and services, including the cloud-native Document Cloud platform. Central to this segment is Creative Cloud, its subscription-based flagship, granting access to a comprehensive suite of creative tools. This division caters to a diverse range of users, from professional content creators and marketers to educators, communicators, and general consumers. Adobe's Digital Experience division offers an integrated suite of applications and services designed to empower brands and businesses to craft, orchestrate, assess, and enhance customer journeys, from initial analytical insights to final commercial transactions. It serves a broad professional base including marketing teams, advertisers, agencies, data scientists, and senior executives. The Publishing and Advertising segment provides specialized offerings such as e-learning tools, technical documentation services, web conferencing solutions, advanced printing technologies, and its Advertising Cloud suite. Adobe engages directly with enterprise clients through its dedicated sales teams and regional offices. Individual end-users can access its offerings via app stores or its official website, adobe.com. Additionally, an extensive indirect channel supports distribution, encompassing partners such as distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, software vendors, retailers, and original equipment manufacturers. Established in 1982, the company, initially named Adobe Systems Incorporated, rebranded as Adobe Inc. in October 2018. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.