Market Pulse50Neutral

Archer Aviation Inc.Opportunity Rank #329(ACHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$5.89

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.89
Price
$2.82
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 52%MOS: $2.26

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $2.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.04% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $2.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.04% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.82
▼ -52.12% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: -64.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-299.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
52.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-8.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -299.8% vs WACC 7.0% (-42.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
5.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-68.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (25th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 56m ago
Sources: 80 (78 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
65 news sentiment+0.2
9 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
3 legal risk-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Archer Aviation Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price more than 50% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company faces elevated leverage and deteriorating free cash flow metrics, indicating financial distress.
Key Risk
Continued poor operational performance and high leverage could further impair value and investor returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC relative to WACC indicating operational turnaround
  • Positive shifts in narrative score reflecting fundamental recovery
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -64.43%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -66.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$354-$354-$287-$227-$193-$105-$21-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Archer Aviation Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Archer Aviation Inc.Industrials

Archer Aviation Inc., an urban air mobility company, engages in designs, develops, manufactures, and operates electric vertical takeoff and landing aircrafts to carry passengers. The company was formerly known as Atlas Crest Investment Corp. and changed its name to Archer Aviation Inc. Archer Aviation Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.