Market Pulse44Neutral

Archer Aviation Inc.Opportunity Rank #320(ACHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$5.43

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.43
Price
$1.97
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 64%MOS: $1.58

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

16/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $1.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.75% long-term growth rate and an 11.91% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $1.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.43, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.75% long-term growth rate and an 11.91% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.97
▼ -63.72% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: -64.75%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-246.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
63.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-9.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -246.4% vs WACC 7.0% (-35.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-69.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (88th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 20m ago
Sources: 74 (73 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
70 news sentiment+1.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

16/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-60.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.5%
Price vs 21 EMA20 · -5.4%
Price vs 50 EMA13 · -9.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA22 · -3.8%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.5%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.2%
Distance from 52W High0 · -60.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Archer Aviation Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 59.2% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are substantially below its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational challenges.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC and worsening free cash flow could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -64.75%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -67.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$386-$354-$287-$227-$193-$105-$21-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Archer Aviation Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Archer Aviation Inc.Industrials

Archer Aviation Inc. is a company focused on urban air mobility, specializing in the development, manufacturing, and operation of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for passenger transport. Initially incorporated as Atlas Crest Investment Corp., the organization later rebranded to its current name, Archer Aviation Inc. Established in 2018, its main operational base is located in Palo Alto, California.