Market Pulse50Neutral

Airbnb, Inc.Opportunity Rank #68(ABNB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$132.59

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$132.59
Price
$193.87
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 46%MOS: $155.10

Fundamental Score

80/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is estimated at $193.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $132.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.00% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is estimated at $193.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $132.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.00% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$193.87
▲ 46.22% upside
20% margin of safety: $155.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.00%
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Fundamental Details

80/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
46.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
5.9% trailing FCF yield
97
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
454.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 108 (89 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
70 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
7 analyst upgrades+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Airbnb, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 46.2% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and bullish fundamental score suggest potential upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not currently exceeding the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 18.68%5 Year CAGR: 15.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$4,662$4,646$4,518$3,884$3,455$2,313-$592$348$686$351

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Airbnb, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Airbnb, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.