Market Pulse57Neutral

Airbnb, Inc.Opportunity Rank #40(ABNB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$146.54

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$146.54
Price
$199.24
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 36%MOS: $159.39

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

65/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is estimated at $199.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.00% long-term growth rate and a 9.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is estimated at $199.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.00% long-term growth rate and a 9.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$199.24
▲ 35.96% upside
20% margin of safety: $159.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.00%
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Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
36.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
5.3% trailing FCF yield
82
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
453.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 89%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 70 (53 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
49 news sentiment+0.7
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Macro headwinds+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

65/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA+4.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.7%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA71 · +4.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.7%
3M RS vs SPY62 · +2.9%
6M RS vs SPY41 · -3.1%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Airbnb, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 54% above the current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 73 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 6%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 18.61%5 Year CAGR: 14.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$4,581$4,646$4,518$3,884$3,455$2,313-$592$348$686$351

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Airbnb, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Airbnb, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Airbnb, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, manages a global digital marketplace. This platform seamlessly connects individuals, known as hosts, who wish to offer a variety of accommodations and unique local experiences, with guests seeking such services worldwide. Users can easily book anything from private rooms and primary residences to vacation homes through its online and mobile channels. Originally established as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. in 2007, the company officially rebranded to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Francisco, California.