Market Pulse50Neutral

Apple Inc.Opportunity Rank #163(AAPL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$251.49

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$251.49
Price
$179.84
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 28%MOS: $143.87

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Apple Inc. (AAPL) is estimated at $179.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $251.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.63% long-term growth rate and a 9.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Apple Inc. (AAPL) is estimated at $179.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $251.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.63% long-term growth rate and a 9.14% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$179.84
-28.49% downside
20% margin of safety: $143.87
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.63%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
25.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.5% premium to price
3
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
50
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 25.8% vs WACC 11.0% (2.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
10.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
80
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 220 (200 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
134 news sentiment+3.6
60 regulatory scrutiny+3.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
3 downgrade headlines+0.3
Earnings miss-0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Apple Inc. shows strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and constructive free cash flow growth, supported by a stable narrative score. However, the current market price is about 25.8% above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more attractive valuation level, limiting potential returns despite solid fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful directional shifts.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.63%5 Year CAGR: 5.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$147,620$124,197$127,701$121,502$132,859$115,123$87,983$79,886$90,747$77,020$79,779$92,754$69,526$62,742$60,258$44,981$20,716$11,372$10,795$6,456$2,877

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Apple Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Apple Inc.Technology

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.