Market Pulse59Neutral

American Airlines Group Inc.Opportunity Rank #135(AAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$13.18

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$13.18
Price
$146.82
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 1014%MOS: $117.46

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

30/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $146.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $146.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $13.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$146.82
▲ 1013.96% upside
20% margin of safety: $117.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1014.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
99.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
565.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

30/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 185 (172 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
145 news sentiment-1.7
Guidance cut-0.1
2 earnings beat-0.1
21 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.2%
Price vs 21 EMA+10.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+10.5%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.4%
Price vs 50 EMA88 · +10.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -19.2%
6M RS vs SPY26 · -9.4%
Distance from 52W High64 · -17.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
American Airlines Group Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate over 1000% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and exceptional free cash flow growth. However, the company’s returns are currently trailing its cost of capital, and the narrative score remains weak and stable, indicating potential underlying concerns.
Key Risk
The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may undermine long-term value creation despite strong cash flow metrics.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.23%5 Year CAGR: 56.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$8,632$6,878$6,666$6,399$5,079$912-$4,412$8,083$7,278$10,715$12,255$12,400$8,391$3,789$3,173$2,294$3,203$2,451-$518$2,649$2,469

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Airlines Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Airlines Group Inc.Industrials

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.