Market Pulse46Neutral

American Airlines Group Inc.Opportunity Rank #37(AAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$16.95

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$16.95
Price
$174.32
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 928%MOS: $139.46

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

80/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $174.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.95, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.20% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $174.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.95, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.20% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$174.32
▲ 928.44% upside
20% margin of safety: $139.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.20%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
928.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
77.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
565.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 115 (93 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
72 news sentiment+0.4
Analyst downgrades-0.2
15 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
2 downgrade headlines+0.1
3 upgrade headlines+0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

80/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+38.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+9.3%
Price vs 50 EMA+12.0%
Price vs 21 EMA65 · +2.5%
Price vs 50 EMA91 · +12.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA95 · +9.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +38.0%
6M RS vs SPY40 · -3.5%
Distance from 52W High87 · -6.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
American Airlines Group Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 1000% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield. The company's constructive fundamentals and robust free cash flow growth present a compelling buy opportunity despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.20%5 Year CAGR: 56.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$8,632$6,878$6,666$6,399$4,719$912-$4,412$8,083$7,278$10,715$12,255$12,400$8,391$3,789$3,173$2,294$3,203$2,451-$518$2,649$2,469

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Airlines Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Airlines Group Inc.Industrials

American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight. Its operations are anchored by key hubs located in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. Additionally, it expands its global reach through strategic partner gateways situated in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a substantial mainline fleet comprising 865 aircraft. This enterprise, established in 1930 and headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, previously operated under the name AMR Corporation until its rebranding to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013.