Market Pulse50Neutral

American Airlines Group Inc.Opportunity Rank #122(AAL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$10.81

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$10.81
Price
$105.75
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 878%MOS: $84.60

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $105.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.99% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is estimated at $105.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.81, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.99% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$105.75
▲ 878.26% upside
20% margin of safety: $84.60
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
878.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
96.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
546.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 158 (142 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
119 news sentiment+1.9
2 downgrade headlines-0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.0
13 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
3 upgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
American Airlines Group Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 892% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. The improving narrative score and healthy FCF CAGR indicate potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
Returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, which may pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.99%5 Year CAGR: 49.79%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,878$6,878$6,666$6,399$5,079$912-$4,412$8,083$7,278$10,715$12,255$12,400$8,391$3,789$3,173$2,294$3,203$2,451-$518$2,649$2,469

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Airlines Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Airlines Group Inc.Industrials

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.